Section 1: Lebron James & Anthony Davis can still be the engines of a championship team
Source: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Laker fans can expect excellence from Lebron James and Anthony Davis as they enter their 6th season competing together and 22nd & 13th season respectively.
The NBA Cup (e.g., In - Season Tournament), the Lakers playoff series against the Nuggets, and the Olympics are three recent high stakes basketball environments where James and Davis have validated that they are capable of competing with anyone.
During the Olympics, James was voted the best player on Team USA by his peers and named tournament MVP.
Table of James' production in his last 3 Olympic appearances
Source: StatMamba on X (Twitter)
In addition to leading the team in rebounds and assists, James also was second in points, first in steals, and first in field goal percentage. He recorded a triple double in the Semifinal game against Serbia (only player in US Olympic history to do so). He shot 90% at the rim, relative to 67% at the rim last season, and was third in makes behind Jokic (34) and Giannis (28).
Source: @_JasonLT on X (Twitter)
Anthony Davis showed that his 2023 performance against Denver was not an outlier to the dominant postseason performer that we have come to know.
Video: Davis had a dominant Game 2 against Denver. He scored 32 points on 14/19 from the field and grabbed 11 rebounds.
Source: Ripple [US] YouTube
Most notably, he experienced a 14 basis point increase in his field goal percentage in 2024 relative to his 2023 series against Denver.
As a duo, AD & LBJ were able to match the production of Jokic & Murray in a way that they did not do in their 2023 series.
Table: AD & LBJ playoff production relative to Jokic & Murray
While there remains well grounded questions around the rest of LA’s roster, James & Davis provide confidence that with the right pieces, the Lakers can compete with the other dominant teams in the Western Conference.
Section 2: The internal development of Rui Hachimura, Max Christie, and Austin Reaves, will determine how successful the Lakers can be
The Lakers lack of offseason transactions signal that the internal development of Rui Hachimura, Max Christie, and Austin Reaves will be indicative of whether the team can be a viable contender in the West.
Video: Noteworthy defensive plays from Hachimura last season.
Source: Lakeshow Huddle YouTube
With his length, he has the ability to be a serviceable weak side rim protector and a disruptor for passing lanes in the pick and roll. Rui’s size and strength also give him the ability to be a strong defender in isolation.
Video: Hachimura playing great on ball defense against Jalen Brunson
Source: Lakers Legacy on X (Twitter)
Though Rui has the physical tools to be a positive defender, last season’s data does not support that statement. He had a defensive box plus/minus (DBPM - A box score estimate of the points per 100 possessions a player contributed above a league average player, translated to an average team) of -0.9. He was in the 33rd percentile for deflections, the 64th percentile for rim defense, and 69th percentile for defensive versatility. It is worth noting that Hachimura was in the 79th percentile for defensive rebounding and 86th percentile for defensive fouls.
Rui’s lack of defensive engagement partly explains why his defensive production does not match his physical tools.
Video: Hachimura falling asleep during crunch time of an elimination game
Source: NBA on YouTube
Against Denver, Rui had a few moments like the clip above. Michael Porter Jr. (MPJ), who was Rui’s primary defensive assignment for the series, produced 22.8 points per game on 55 / 49 / 77 shooting splits relative to 10.7 points per game on 37 / 32 / 77 shooting splits against Minnesota in the next round. Hachimura had a DBPM of -2.3 for the series.
Though Rui has limitations defending in space against players like MPJ, his ability to be engaged defensively is something that he can control.
The Lakers were 26 - 13 in games Rui started last season, including 22 - 10 after he became the full time starter towards the end of the season. He averaged 15.4 points and 4.8 rebounds shooting 57.5% from the field and 43.9% from three in 39 starts. Over 82 games, that is a ~54 win pace which would have put the team as the 4 seed if scaled out over a full season.
It is also worth noting that they had the 4th best record in the league after January 7 and finished the year 30 - 15.
In spurts, Hachimura has shown the propensity to keep agile players in front of him. Rui’s commitment to consistently doing so is what will dictate how much of his value, particularly on offense, will be realized this year. (Hachimura ranked in the 86th percentile in points per possession from the post. )
Max Christie’s development will be paramount to the Lakers success this upcoming year. Like Rui, Christie has the physical tools to be a strong two way player for the Lakers.
Though Christie has seen limited minutes in his first two years, averaging 13.5 minutes per game, performances like the one he had against Cleveland, highlight his ability to produce as the 5th man in the right lineups.
Video: Christie in 1 of his 7 starts last season against the Cavaliers
Source: Ripple [US] on YouTube
Christie scored 12 points, grabbed 5 rebounds, and distributed 3 assists while being the primary defender on Donovan Mitchell, one of the best two guards in the NBA.
On offense, Christie displayed the various ways he is a threat by being a strong facilitator through drives and kicks, spotting up for three, and an agile cutter and athletic finisher around the rim.
Table: Christie lineup data relative to the NBA Champion Celtics
When paired with players like James & Davis, Christie has proven that he can capitalize on the attention that those players demand.
Video: Christie defending Mitchell on a final possession against Cleveland
Source: LakersGuru on X (Twitter)
On defense Christie held Mitchell to 4 for 18 shooting, including great hip movement and change of direction on this game saving possession. Christie’s ability to be a point of attack defender while also being a functional offensive player would allow LAL to deploy an additional two way player around Lebron & AD.
With his recent contract extension along with the uncertain health status of Jarred Vanderbilt, one can assume that Christie is in line for an increased role this upcoming season. His ability to be a strong defender and a useful offensive player will be key in the Lakers ability to compete with the other elite teams out West.
Over the Lakers last two playoff runs, Austin Reaves has established himself as the teams’ number three scoring option.
Table: Austin Reaves counting statistics the last two postseasons
Each year since entering the league, Reaves has experienced an increase in points per game and assists per game. He has consistently shown that he is capable of improving as a player.
Austin Reaves' growth as a three point shooter is the next step in his progression.
Relative to the other two guards in the NBA, Reaves is just about an average three point shooter. (The NBA average is ~37% for two guards, just about the same rate Reaves shot at last season).
Last season, ~85% of Reaves’ three point attempts were above the break threes. Reaves shot 37.6% on those three point attempts.
It is worth noting that of the 133 above the break three point shots that Reaves made, 37.6% of them were unassisted. That is relative to 31.8% of Lebron’s above the break three point makes being unassisted and 28.8% for D’Angelo Russell; the Lakers other two high volume three point shooters last year.
Video: Reaves creating his own shot on an unassisted above the break 3
Source: Lakeshow Huddle on YouTube
Reaves’ ability to increase his three point percentage on unassisted shots like this will strengthen the Lakers ability to create offense, especially in crunch time situations, outside of Lebron and Anthony Davis.
Section 3: Maintaining a realistic perspective
While Lebron & AD provide fans with some confidence in the team’s capabilities, and the continued development of Hachimura, Christie, and Reaves supply fans with growth trends to closely monitor, as currently constructed, the Lakers pathway to success in the Western conference remains grim. Vegas currently gives the Lakers the 7th best odds to win the West.
Table: Minutes per game of noteworthy rotational players last season
Health is not a variable unique to the Lakers, but it is one that has plagued the team in recent years.
With recent news of Christian Wood set to miss at least two months and the uncertain health status of Vanderbilt, the overall health of the team is already in question.
As the Lakers find themselves ~$45,000 below the second apron, they are also heavily constrained in their ability to take back salary in any potential trades this season. While they still can aggregate salaries to make a trade, any significant trade will likely require them to either reduce salary or at least break even in outgoing and incoming salary.
The two glaring roster weaknesses for the Lakers are a scarcity of two-way players and a lack of a secondary big to help the team against bigger frontline opponents like Minnesota and Denver. Given that, a trade seems to be the most straightforward path to addressing one or both of those needs. However, with the team’s limited financial flexibility, the path towards amending those areas could prove to be difficult, hence the importance of the internal development of key players spotlighted and other newcomers such as Dalton Knecht.
Finally, the Lakers still need to adjust to their new head coach JJ Redick. While Redick has proven to be a basketball savant through his work on his podcast ‘The Old Man and The Three’ & ‘Mind the Game’, he still is a first time head coach with no prior experience. So while excitement and faith in his ability to effectively coach the team is warranted, that is still an uncertainty that Laker fans need to account for when considering their faith in the team and their emotional well being over the next ~ 7 months.
In sum, while there are reasons for Lakers fans to be hopeful coming into the season, it’s important that fans moderate their expectations for reasons listed above.
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